Scenarios

      Among three scenarios of the future footprint development: doing as usual, slow shifting and rapid reduction up to an equilibrium with biological capacity of the planet nearly 2030  (Kitzes et al., 2008), the third scenario is accepted at the UGNs. The later scenario is close to the B1-450 (450 parts of atmospheric CO₂ per million) scenario (van Vuuren & Bouwman, 2005) envisaged, to 2050, stabilization of global population and accelerated economic development of low-income countries.

     Close green scenario under the name G2 powered in the framework of the United Nations Environment Programme is also accepted. This scenario assumes that 2 per cent of global GDP (Gross Domestic Product) are channelled per year into the Green Economy (Green Economy Report, 2011). The time horizon extends to 2050. To this date, an approximate equilibrium between the human footprint and biological capacity of the planet (ratio 1,2) should be achieved. Because of its attractiveness with powerful UN support, this scenario has received the greatest public buzz in the world media.